Mad Max Fury Road will walk away with seven Oscars this year. Three Oscars less than this masterpiece warrants. 
The ones that really matter and that Fury Road deserves to win – Picture, Director, and Cinematography – will go to the Spotlight, Revenant and Revenant respectively.
Fury Road will win the following Oscars fairly easily: Editing, Production Design, Make Up, Costume Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. That’s six.
My lock bet is for Editing, where Margaret Sixel will take home the gold. I got on her at 1.57; she’s moved in to 
1.25 now. Not great value there at the moment, but if you can find a place offering odds on Sixel for 1.50 or higher, throw some money at it.
Fury Road will be mildly troubled by the Force Awakens for the Best Visual Effects Oscar.
It shouldn’t be. As the JJ Abrams sugar-hit subsides, people will see The Force Awakens for what it is: a competent yet predictable space opera. The visual effects of Star Wars pale in comparison to the wild, bat-shit crazy inventiveness of Fury Road.
Blowing up a Death Star: that’s been done before. Twice. A two-hour car-chase with all live action stunts, bodies flying through the air; a symphony of destruction in an apocalyptic sandstorm, a one-armed Valkyrie driving a war-rig right over the top of a turbo-charged patriarchy. Well – that’s never been done before.
George Miller spent 375 million making the Sistine Chapel of the Apocalypse – it deserves to win. Yet, deserving has little relationship to reality of course, so I’m less sure on this one. However, if you can get Fury Road for 2.50 or more for visual effects, you should lay the bet.
Best Picture will likely go to Spotlight. Revenant is favourite at the moment on 1.50 which I do not 
understand. I don’t understand because I’ve actually watched the film: interminable survival porn with weirdly inconsistent injuries, an absence of humour or spark, depicting a world apparently lacking in any females.
Spotlight for anything 3 dollars and out is good value, as is the Big Short on anything 7 dollars and out.
The bookies have Alejandro González Iñárritu as favourite for Best Director. At 1.10 he represents no value.
George Miller – who deserves to win – represents value at 7.50 or more. A few weeks ago when I placed several bets on George at 4.50, I was very happy with my choice. I’m less happy now, as it appears the wind is in Alejandro’s sails.
Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress. I don’t really care about any of these as the films they are involved in don’t involve war boys or guzzoline.
Leo is an unbackable favourite for Best Actor, and he deserves to win it after the abuse he received at the hands of Iñárritu. I’d like our Cate to win best actress for the third time, but she won’t.
Cinematography will go to The Revenant, and I must reluctantly admit it will be a moderately deserving 
winner. Brilliant Aussie cinematographer John Seale will be just as deserving for Fury Road, but I suspect he’ll miss out. Even at his current price of 11 dollars, I’m not putting any (more) money on him.
Oh and I wagered that Chris Rock’s first joke will be about white people. At 15 dollars, that’s pretty fucking good value.
I can’t finishing without mentioning this: it’s great to see so many talented Australians get nominated on the biggest stage of all. George Miller, Margaret Sixel, Cate Blanchett, John Seale, and all those involved in the technical awards (there’s plenty) are again allowing Australia to punch above its weight on the world stage (Australia’s population is slightly bigger than Florida, and smaller than Texas).
Go Aussie.
Final Picks
Best Picture: Spotlight
Best Actor: Leo
Best Actress: Brie Larson
Best Supporting Actor: Sly Stallone
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Best Director: George Miller (though this pick is made more with heart than head).
Best Animated feature: Inside Out
Best Foreign Language: Son of Saul
Best Documentary Feature: Amy
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant)
Best Original Song: Til It Happens to you
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Editing, Production Design, Make Up, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects: Fury Road
Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Animated Short: who the fuck cares?
Best Live Short: see above.
